Republicans Spot Opportunity in Wisconsin

Republicans are pumping millions of advertising dollars into the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin as polls show the race is tightening.
Democrats have so far spent more ad money on incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin’s campaign compared to her Republican challenger Eric Hovde by $93 million to $69 million, the Associated Press reported, citing figures from AdImpact.
Republicans will be investing more in advertising spots as the Wisconsin Senate race enters its final few weeks. The GOP has $21 million in spots reserved in the Badger State between October 14 and November 5, compared to $15 million reserved by Democrats.
If Hovde can flip Baldwin’s Senate seat, it could play a massive role in helping the GOP regain control of the upper chamber.
The Democrats currently control the Senate by a 51-49 seat margin, including four independent senators who caucus or align with the party. The GOP is expected to flip the West Virginia seat held by outgoing independent Senator Joe Manchin—giving Republicans an estimated 50 seats at least.
If Hovde also wins in Wisconsin, the GOP will be on course for 51-49 outright control of the Senate from January 2025, barring upsets elsewhere.
Newsweek has contacted Baldwin’s and Hovde’s campaigns for comment via email.
Baldwin remains the favorite to win reelection in November, however.
A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of 1,000 likely Wisconsin voters conducted October 5-8 showed Baldwin with a 4-point lead over Hovde (50 percent to 46 percent). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
However, the influential forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the race between Baldwin and Hovde from a “lean democrat” to a toss-up on October 8.
This has coincided with Hovde cutting into the incumbent’s leads in the final few weeks of the race. On September 14, the polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill had Baldwin with a 7-point lead over the Republican (50 percent of 43 percent). This has reduced to a 4-point lead as of October 14 (49 percent to 45 percent).
“We always knew the race was going to tighten,” Baldwin told the Associated Press. “That’s why I’ve been working every day to bring Wisconsinites together behind my campaign. I’m confident that we have the strength, momentum, and message to win next month.”
An internal poll by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, obtained by Politico, showed Hovde leading by 1 point in a head-to-head ballot and tied with Baldwin at 46 percent on a full ballot with third party candidates included.
“This is the first time we have seen Hovde with the lead in our internal polling,” Jason Thielman, the committee’s executive director, wrote in a memo while sharing the results.
“The momentum’s on my side,” Hovde recently told a forum in Milwaukee. “I plan to win this race. I will win this race because I’m going to stay focused on what matters.”
Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman said Baldwin is facing her toughest election campaign this year, and that Hovde can appeal to voters more on key issues such as the economy and immigration.
“Wisconsin’s always been on a knife’s edge,” Zimmerman told the AP. “Fifty-fifty elections are the rule here, and she’s always been the exception. What you’re seeing here is a return to that principle.”
Baldwin won election to the Senate in 2012 by 6 points, and improved her margin of victory to 11 points in 2018.
In comparison, four of the previous six presidential elections in the key swing state of Wisconsin have been decided by less than 1 point.